Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote. Use the table ...

According to 538's average, former President Donald ... and that decreases the weight our final forecast puts on polls today. The reason, in other words, that our forecast hasn't moved much ...

For 2024, 538 ... of the 2016 campaign in the two weeks after the Democratic National Convention that year — and the only time former President Donald Trump led in 538's "polls-only" forecast ...

All this means polls earlier in the election cycle are worse at approximating the final margin. This is where forecasting models really become useful. Above everything else, 538 makes forecasts to ...

But the roots go deeper. People have never really stopped being mad at Silver since the last election, and the people maddest ...

After polling misses in 2016 and 2020, how should we feel about 2024? The case for and against this year’s polls.