You don’t have to take my word for it. Let’s compare the average of pre-election polls — computed by FiveThirtyEight and ...
Through Monday, Nov. 4, 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election. On Tuesday, Nov. 5 — ...
President Joe Biden pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s latest average of polls with the president leading in the last five national polls measured. Biden posted ...
National polls indicate a tight presidential race on Election Day. How accurate are the polls, and when will we know who won?
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.
One question that we sometimes get is whether polling averages like 538's are biased toward Trump because of the influx of polls conducted by Republican-aligned firms. Over the past two weeks, 23 ...
Just before Election Day, national polls indicate a tight presidential race. How accurate are the polls, and when will we ...
Polls are more reliable in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt. Want to know who will win the 2024 presidential election? Flip a coin. The race is very likely to come down to seven key swing ...
How can two polls say two different things? And can you even trust polls, anyway? Here at 538, we cover polls year-round, so we'd like to share with you some tips we've learned over the years ...